Worldwide, traffic dropped 9.7% and unique visitors 5.9% in June.
There is probably some seasonality in there, with kids out of school, but the rocket growth rate for ChatGPT (blue line) began coming off in April. Google ( GOOG) Bard is the only one that still saw growth in June, according to Similarweb, a web data research firm. But ardor for these tools may already be cooling now that the novelty has worn off. This has led to an explosion of investment, and orders for NVIDIA ( NVDA) GPUs, the workhorses of AI math. So now we are on to a new cycle, kick-started by generative AIs that create images and text. We also saw incredible advances in computer vision, and factory automation. For example, the last one began in 2012 and gave us a wealth of hidden consumer-facing AI features, like all the things iPhone and Pixel can do with photos, or the AI behind TikTok that picks the next video for you. But also, doesn't it read exactly like a lot of what we are reading today?Įach one of these hype cycles fails on one level, but also pushes forward this multi-generational project. In the first place, I don't need to tell you that Minsky was very wrong about that last part, and he lived long enough to realize that. Marvin Minsky, Computation: Finite and Infinite Machines, 1967 Within a generation, I am convinced, few compartments of intellect will remain outside the machine's realm - the problems of creating "artificial intelligence" will be substantially solved. Today we have the beginnings: machines that play games, machines that learn to play games machines that handle abstract-non-numerical-mathematical problems and deal with ordinary-language expressions and we see many other activities formerly confined within the province of human intelligence. We are now immersed in a new technological revolution concerned with the mechanization of intellectual processes. In 1967, one of the pioneers of AI, Marvin Minsky, said this:
AI hype cycles are pretty regular things that date all the way back to the 1950s.
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